KATHMANDU: It was the day of Dashain Tika, and when Rabin Songmi Limbu of Pyang, Maijogmai Rural Municipality-6, Ilam, saw bright sunshine, he thought the monsoon was over.

Two days after Tika, on October 4, there was a sudden heavy rainfall. Ilam is generally a place that experiences rain, so Rabin initially took it as normal. However, in the middle of the night, he heard the rivers and streams roaring loudly. “At night, the water was pouring from the sky as if it were coming from a tap. I had never seen anything like that before,” he said.

Rabin woke up around 5:30 AM and saw a massive landslide when he looked towards the village. The house of his eldest uncle’s son, Bamidhwaj Songmi, was just a two-minute walk from Rabin’s house. But in the morning, Bamidhwaj’s house was not there; there were only stones, soil, and debris brought down by the night-long rain.

Along with the house, 85-year-old Bamidhwaj, his wife 75-year-old Buddhamaya, their son 47-year-old Dhanawal, daughter-in-law 45-year-old Sarala, and granddaughter 14-year-old Prakriti were buried.

Rabin says, “In my estimation, the landslide must have occurred around 3-4 AM. When I didn’t see my brother’s house, I looked for my brother and his family, but I couldn’t find them anywhere. Then I informed relatives and others. It was an unexpected event.”

Five out of the seven family members were buried in the landslide; Dhanabal and Sarala’s two daughters, 16-year-old Akriti and 11-year-old Smriti, were saved as they were not at home that day. Akriti was at a relative’s house in Ilam Bazaar, and Smriti was at Rabin’s house. Both sisters are currently under Rabin’s care.

In Pyang, Ilam, 28-year-old Kiran Thebe, 18-year-old Manmaya, and three-year-old Munusa Thebe also died in the landslide.

The severe rain and subsequent landslide killed eight people in Pyang alone on a single day. Similarly, a total of 39 people died in Ilam: 37 from landslides in Deumai, Suryodaya, Mai, Ilam Municipality, and Phakphokthum, Mangsebung, and Sandakpur Rural Municipalities, and two who were swept away by rivers.

Local singer Phuti Sherpa handing over aid to Prakriti and Smriti of the Songmi family who survived the landslide. Photo: Phuti Sherpa’s Facebook

Even meteorologists could not clearly predict such heavy rain in Ilam in a short period and the resulting loss of life and property. Generally, the monsoon enters Nepal on June 13 and exits on October 2. Based on this, this year’s monsoon should have exited on the day of Tika. However, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had warned that the monsoon would become active again from the day of Tika. But unfortunately, the department could not forecast and disseminate information about such heavy rainfall in Ilam.

The Department’s Meteorological Forecasting Division had published a Dashain Special Weather Bulletin on October 1, mentioning the possibility of light to moderate rainfall in various provinces and heavy to very heavy rainfall in some places from October 4 to 6. But although Ilam received rain on all three days, it was not on the list of mentioned danger zones. The Division uses symbols on the map of Nepal to indicate potential rain risks: dark red for ‘take action’, dark yellow for ‘be alert’, yellow for ‘stay updated’, and green for ‘no warning’.

Ilam was in the area marked ‘stay updated’ (meaning further information would follow later) on the potential risk assessment maps released by the Division for October 4, 5, and 6. Until then, the Department’s information did not show a need for Ilam to be on alert. Everyone was busy enjoying Dashain. On the day of Mahanavami, October 1, the Division had issued a statement urging caution due to heavy rain in various places. The general public does not usually pay attention to such forecasts, and government bodies also could not maintain vigilance during the Dashain period.

The new government formed after the Gen Z movement had activated the police and administration before Dashain to prevent disasters like floods and landslides. Despite the government’s special efforts, the government’s plan did not work in Ilam. Ilam Assistant Chief District Officer Bholanath Guragain says that although precautions were taken according to the government’s plan, the massive damage occurred because the rain came during the night. He says, “The landslide did not happen in the probable areas; the water that flowed from small, unexpected streams, which were not considered likely to cause landslides, washed away bamboo thickets and then houses. It was an unpredictable stream that no one had anticipated that swept them away.”

Why is forecasting becoming difficult?

In recent years, the pattern of rainfall has been changing. The trend of concentrated rainfall at the end of the monsoon season leads to floods, landslides, and major losses of life and property.

Experts have not been able to predict this well. The same happened in Ilam. According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology data, Ilam’s Himali village center received 332.6 millimeters of rainfall between 8:45 AM on October 5 and 8:45 AM on October 6. This is a record-breaking rainfall after 42 years. Earlier, 320.6 millimeters of rain was recorded there.

Similarly, Ilam Tea Estate center measured 280.2 millimeters of rain. This is a record-breaker after 28 years; the previous record was 273.2 millimeters.

According to Department Spokesperson Bibhuti Pokharel, initially, there was no danger situation seen in Ilam. As a result, Ilam was given the ‘stay updated’ signal.

Spokesperson Pokharel says, “It was predicted that a disaster was coming to the East, but because of the different models used for weather analysis, there was a possibility of different locations coming up. Therefore, the initial forecast was wrong. We corrected it later.”

The computer system used to estimate risk by mathematically analyzing air, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, and clouds is called a model. There are global, regional, and instantaneous forecasting systems. Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology mainly uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This can be used to forecast a specific area.

Global and instantaneous systems are also used. Forecasts can also differ if the latitude and longitude are not correctly aligned in the models.

Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Head of the Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at Kathmandu University, says that forecasts can also differ due to models.

Furthermore, he says that Nepal does not have the technical capacity to precisely predict how much rain will fall.

He says, “We only have the practice of saying there will be a lot of rain; we still do not have the technical capacity to say how many millimeters. We can only estimate up to a few hundred millimeters or more.”

He suggests that climate change is one reason for the inability to make precise forecasts. He says that major incidents are happening every year due to the changing rainfall pattern caused by climate change and the lack of forecasting capacity.

According to experts, the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauge stations, weather stations, and automatic stations in Nepal also makes such forecasting difficult.

Engineering geologist Ranjan Kumar Dahal says that recently, as the monsoon is about to end, heavy rain concentrates in one place, but not uniformly elsewhere.

He studied the Melamchi, Marsyangdi, and other rivers in the Terai. The study data shows that during normal monsoon conditions, rainfall increases with altitude, but the lower parts receive much more rain than expected, and the trend of concentrated rainfall in one place is increasing.

He says, “Sometimes, there is a sudden downpour. At such times, the ground cannot hold it, and a landslide occurs. The same thing happened in Ilam this time.” Rural roads were being dug everywhere in Ilam’s villages. When the ground was weakened by road construction, the excessive rain caused the soil to fail.

Even if it rains uniformly for three or four days during the monsoon, there is no such effect, but a sudden, torrential downpour causes great damage.

Last year, a similar rainfall pattern occurred in Lele, Lalitpur, and Roshi area, Kavre. This time, similar rain in Ilam and Darjeeling, India, killed 15 people.

Department Spokesperson Pokharel says that the trend of record-breaking rain at the end of the monsoon, no rain in July, low activity in August, and excessive rain in October has been increasing for the past eight to ten years.

She says, “This affects our entire cycle. The monsoon is also prolonging. We are taking this situation as an effect of climate change.”

This time, the monsoon, which entered on May 29, exited on October 1. This is one week later than the normal period.

According to engineering geologist Dahal, normally, if there is a large mountain between hills, water can hit it and pour down in one place. But he says that it is a subject of study why it is raining excessively in one place and not at all in another place in Nepal right now, and it cannot be stated immediately.

He says, “Such a situation may also be impossible to predict. The concentration of rain in one place can only be stated based on continuous observation. It should be possible to estimate it in an hour or two by looking at the on-site data.”

According to experts, the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauge stations, weather stations, and automatic stations in Nepal also makes such forecasting difficult. Kayastha, Head of the Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at Kathmandu University, says that to enable forecasting, the state needs to increase investment in human resources and technical equipment. He says, “We only have three radars. We need to add necessary equipment and increase human resources.”

Department Spokesperson Pokharel says that equipment is never enough when new technology is constantly emerging. “When is it ever enough? Even if we say it’s not enough, it depends on whether the state will provide it or not,” she says.