In the 2022 election, except for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), parties such as the Nepali Congress, UML, and Maoist Center formed electoral alliances based on convenience. The practice of securing power through alliances among major parties and dividing key positions had already become well-established.

However, the political landscape that emerged after the Gen-Z rebellion raised serious questions about the practice of party alliances. Alliances formed in the name of power stability came under widespread criticism for nurturing political malpractice, corruption, and an insensitive system of governance.

As a result, one positive aspect of the House of Representatives election to be held on March 5 is that major political parties are contesting independently. Parties are relying on their own voter base, the image of their candidates, and local issues.

Except for a limited coordination with the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party in Rukum East, UML is contesting alone nationwide. The UML-splinter party CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Maoist Centre have unified to form the Nepali Communist Party (NCP) and are contesting jointly, but without an electoral alliance. The entry of the group led by former Kathmandu Metropolitan City mayor Balen Shah has made the RSP appear more confident.

What kind of results will emerge when parties contest without alliances? The answer will be given by the voters. However, the direct impact is likely to be seen in 16 constituencies where the previous election was decided by a very narrow margin. Which constituencies were they?

Let us start with Panchthar-1, a hill district constituency in eastern Nepal. Here, UML candidate Basant Kumar Nembang defeated Nepali Congress candidate Bhishma Raj Angdembe by only 46 votes. Nembang received 32,135 votes, while Angdembe received 32,089.

This time, the electoral equation in Panchthar-1 has changed. Both UML and Nepali Congress have replaced their previous candidates. Nepali Congress has fielded Narendra Kumar Kerung, while UML has nominated Aindra Sundar Nembang. RSP has made Mahendra Bikram Thamsuhang its candidate, and NCP has fielded Harka Bahadur Nembang. In a constituency where 46 votes were decisive last time, the change in candidates and the entry of new political forces are expected to make the contest even more interesting.

A similar situation existed in Ilam-2. UML’s Subas Chandra Nembang won with 30,020 votes, while Nepali Congress’ Dambar Bahadur Khadka secured 29,906 votes—a margin of just 114 votes. However, in the by-election held after Nembang’s death, a significant shift in voter alignment was seen. UML candidate Suhang Nembang, son of the late Nembang, won with 27,772 votes, while Khadka received only 21,942 votes, creating a margin of 5,830 votes.

This time, UML has again nominated Suhang Nembang, while Nepali Congress has fielded Bhesraj Acharya. The narrow margin in the previous election, the wide margin in the by-election, and the new candidate combination make Ilam-2 a constituency of continued interest.

Morang-1 was also decided by a small margin. Nepali Congress candidate Dig Bahadur Limbu won with 27,297 votes, while UML’s Ghanashyam Khatri received 26,867 votes—a difference of just 430 votes. This time, UML has repeated Khatri, while Nepali Congress has fielded Khadga Bahadur Phago. The alliance-free electoral structure is expected to make Morang-1 even more competitive.

In Sunsari-1, Ashok Rai of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) defeated RSP’s Goma Tamang by just 453 votes. Rai received 17,059 votes, while Tamang got 16,606. This time, the constituency has drawn further attention as former Dharan mayor Harka Raj Rai has entered the race after forming the Shram Sanskriti Party. RSP has again fielded Goma Tamang.

In Sunsari-4, Nepali Congress’ Gyanendra Bahadur Karki won with 30,483 votes, while UML’s Jagdish Kusiyat received 30,371 votes—a margin of only 112 votes. Both parties have repeated their previous candidates. Rather than new faces, the contest here appears set to be decided by the same old rivals.

In Dhanusha-2, Nepali Congress’s Ram Krishna Yadav won with 20,112 votes, narrowly defeating UML’s Uma Shankar Argaria, who received 19,955 votes—a margin of 157 votes. This time, UML has again nominated Argaria, while Nepali Congress has replaced its candidate with Dinesh Prasad Yadav Parsaila.

In Dhanusha-4, UML’s Raghuvir Mahaseth also won by a slim margin. He received 32,236 votes, while Nepali Congress’ Mahendra Yadav got 32,112 votes. Both parties have repeated the same candidates this time.

In Sarlahi-3, UML’s Hari Prasad Upreti won with 32,938 votes, defeating Maoist Center candidate Narendra Sah Kalwar, who received 32,168 votes—a margin of 770 votes. UML has repeated Upreti, while NCP has fielded Narayan Kaji Shrestha.

In Bara-2, JSP’s Ram Sahay Prasad Yadav won with 13,822 votes, narrowly defeating Maoist Center’s Shiv Chandra Kushwaha, who received 13,468 votes—a difference of 354 votes. This time, both parties have changed candidates. JSP has nominated Ram Kishor Prasad Yadav, while NCP has fielded Ramesh Prasad Yadav.

In Parsa-3, UML’s Raj Kumar Gupta won by only 167 votes. Gupta received 24,319 votes, while Nepali Congress’ Surendra Chaudhary got 24,152 votes. This time, UML has fielded Rupesh Kumar Pandey, while Nepali Congress has repeated Chaudhary.

In Kathmandu-1, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) candidate Rabindra Mishra is optimistic about winning, based on the respectable votes he received previously. Nepali Congress’s Prakash Man Singh won with 7,143 votes, while Mishra secured 7,018 votes—a margin of just 125 votes. This time, Nepali Congress has nominated Prabal Thapa Chhetri, while RSP’s Ranju Darshana Neupane is also in the race. The narrow past margin, new candidates, and repeated contenders are expected to make Kathmandu-1 a fiercely contested constituency.

In Kathmandu-9, UML’s Krishna Gopal Shrestha won with 11,956 votes, while independent candidate Tek Bahadur Pokharel received 10,961 votes—a margin of 995 votes. Pokharel is not contesting this time. UML has also changed its candidate, nominating Ajay Kranti Shakya. RSP’s Dol Prasad Aryal has also laid claim to this constituency.

In Bhaktapur-2, Nepali Congress’ Durlabh Thapa won with 24,239 votes, while UML’s Mahesh Basnet received 23,282 votes—a margin of 957 votes. This time, Nepali Congress has fielded Kabir Rana, while UML has repeated Basnet.

In Kapilvastu-2, Nepali Congress’s Surendra Raj Acharya won with 39,014 votes, narrowly defeating UML’s Brijesh Kumar Gupta, who received 38,697 votes—a margin of 317 votes. Nepali Congress has again fielded Acharya, while UML has replaced Gupta with Drig Narayan Pandey.

In Bardiya-2, independent candidate Lalbir Chaudhary won by only 136 votes, receiving 26,520 votes, while Maoist Center’s Suresh Panth got 26,384 votes. Chaudhary is not contesting this time. NCP has again fielded Panth, while UML has nominated Bimala Bik and Nepali Congress has fielded Kishor Singh Rathore.

In Dailekh-2, Nepali Congress’ Dikpal Kumar Shahi won with 20,183 votes, while UML’s Laxmi Prasad Pokharel received 20,016 votes—a margin of just 167 votes. Both parties have repeated their candidates.

In Kailali-5, Nepali Congress’s Dilli Raj Pant won with 21,392 votes, while UML’s Narada Muni Rana received 20,392 votes—an exact margin of 1,000 votes. This time, Nepali Congress has fielded Nar Narayan Shah, while UML has nominated Yagya Raj Dhungana.

In Bajhang-1, Unified Socialist’s Bhanu Bhakta Joshi won with 28,413 votes, while UML’s Ain Bahadur Mahara secured 27,412 votes—a difference of 1,001 votes. This time, following the unification of the Unified Socialist and Maoist Center into NCP, candidates have changed. The NCP has nominated Min Bahadur Kunwar, UML has repeated Mahara, and Nepali Congress has fielded Prakash Snehi Rasaili. Since Nepali Congress, which previously supported the Unified Socialist here, has now fielded its own candidate, a three-way contest is expected.

Apart from these, other constituencies decided by narrow margins include Tehrathum, where Nepali Congress’ Sita Gurung won by 1,076 votes; Morang-2, where UML’s Rishikesh Pokharel won by 1,208 votes; Siraha-2, where JSP’s Raj Kishor Yadav won by 1,150 votes; and Mahottari-1, where UML’s Laxmi Mahato Koiri won by 1,030 votes.