JANAKPUR: Black sunglasses, black pants, and a black coat—all black. This has become the “signature attire” of Balen Shah, senior leader of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).

Before being elected mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City through the 2079 BS (2022) local elections, Balen did not show such an attachment to the color black. After becoming mayor, however, he suddenly turned himself into a mysterious figure: no public addresses, no interaction with the mainstream media, and not even direct engagement with his own voters.

But now, Balen is set to change. Just as before the 2022 elections, and with the upcoming election on March 5 approaching, Balen will finally make his first public address through an election rally. Through this rally, he will also abandon his “signature attire.”

Balen, who has also been put forward by the RSP as a prime ministerial candidate, will inaugurate his election campaign by addressing a rally at Tirhutiya Gachhi in Janakpurdham on January 19. On that occasion, he will be seen wearing a kurta. Ambhuprasad Sah, deputy head of RSP’s Madhesh organization department, says that since Balen will be wearing a kurta, they too will attend the rally in kurtas.

According to the schedule, Balen will arrive in Janakpur on the afternoon of January 18 along with RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichhane. On the morning of the 19^th, he will offer prayers at the Janaki Temple. After that, Balen will remain busy at the rally along with RSP Chairman Lamichhane, Vice-chairman Swarnim Wagle, Spokesperson Manish Jha, and other leaders.

An AI-generated image used by party workers as campaign material for Rastriya Swatantra Party’s (RSP) election rally.

“An ‘Uprising for Change’ rally has been organized at Tirhutiya Gachhi in Janakpur on January 19,” says RSP Spokesperson Jha. “All the leaders will address that rally.”

According to Jha, an estimated 20,000 people will attend the rally. On the same day, RSP has also organized a Madhesh Province–level party workers’ gathering in Janakpur. Jha says senior party leaders will also be present at that event.

At present, campaigning for the election rally is underway across villages in Madhesh. Promotional materials created using AI – depicting Balen and Rabi wearing dhotis to reflect Madhesh identity – are being widely circulated. Posters with slogans like “Abki baar, Balen Sarkar” (This time, Balen government” are being put up in villages.

Due to his activities after being elected mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Balen has often been accused of running the local government from behind the scenes. In this context, there is widespread interest in the campaign he is launching from Janakpur, a city that witnessed the Madhesh movement.

Why Madhesh?

Why did Balen, who was born in Ekdara Rural Municipality of Mahottari, choose Madhesh? Various speculations are being made. Some believe he chose Madhesh because he may contest elections from his birthplace, Mahottari. However, Balen has almost finalized preparations to contest from Jhapa-5, the constituency of former prime minister KP Sharma Oli. His team is also preparing to establish a contact office in Jhapa.

Another interpretation is that Balen has taken this step to capitalize on the political vacuum seen in Madhesh. “There is a kind of disillusionment with politics among youth in Madhesh. Old politicians don’t give opportunities to new ones. In such a situation, Balen may be trying to win the trust of Madhesh,” says activist Saroj Kumar Mishra.

A Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) activist displaying promotional material prepared for Balen’s address in Janakpur.

According to Mishra, Balen may be trying to show that he alone can address the widespread frustration among Madheshi youth.

Meanwhile, Ambhuprasad Sah, deputy head of RSP’s Madhesh organization department, says that since the party has presented Balen as a prime ministerial candidate, enthusiasm has been seen across villages, which is why he chose Madhesh. He says, “Madhesh is a land of change. This election is also going to be about change. Madhesh was chosen to declare that. This rally is also being organized to break the mindset that Madheshis cannot lead Nepal’s politics.”

An AI-generated image used by activists as promotional material for the Rastriya Swatantra Party’s (RSP) election rally.

Gen-Z movement leader Purushottam Yadav also says that since Madhesh has historically played a crucial role in Nepal’s political transformations, Balen chose Madhesh. “Political change in Nepal happens through Madhesh; that is why this rally is being organized,” he says.

Yadav also says that in the context of no one from Madhesh having become prime minister so far, RSP has elevated the dignity of the entire Madhesh by making Balen its prime ministerial candidate.

Advocate Rocky Prasad Sah says the Janakpur rally will be the first step in assessing Balen’s political success. “Madhesh has always been a political laboratory. This time, it seems Balen is trying to focus voters’ emotional inclination toward himself by starting his promotional campaign from Madhesh. That rally will allow an assessment of his political success,” he says.

The RSP factor

From an organizational perspective, RSP’s presence in Madhesh appears weak. In the 2022 general elections, RSP received only 107,084 proportional representation votes from Madhesh Province. At that time, the total number of voters in Madhesh was 3,386,628.

On the first-past-the-post side, despite delivering shocking results nationwide, RSP failed to win even a single seat in Madhesh. This clearly indicated that the party had not been accepted by Madhesh.

An AI-generated image used by party workers as promotional material for the Rastriya Swatantra Party’s (RSP) election rally.

On the other hand, there was also widespread suspicion that RSP was anti-federalism. It appears that by leveraging Balen’s popularity, RSP is trying to address all these issues at once through the Janakpur rally.