PATNA: The ongoing assembly election in India’s eastern state of Bihar on Thursday is being viewed as a political “popularity test” for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

This election in one of India’s influential states is expected to indicate the strength of public support for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Modi.

Under the two-phase voting, millions of voters have lined up at polling centers across Bihar to cast their votes for 243 assembly seats.

The election, held amid public dissatisfaction over unemployment, law and order issues, and irregularities in the voter list revision, will have its results announced on November 14.

The results are expected to show whether the NDA under Modi can maintain its dominance or if voters dissatisfied with governance and the economy will support opposition alliances.

Bihar has long been considered India’s political “bellwether state”, reflecting broader electoral trends. This makes the election particularly important for Prime Minister Modi.

With the 2019 general election and upcoming state elections in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Assam in mind, Modi is seeking to maintain political momentum through a victory in Bihar.

Bihar sends 40 members to India’s lower house of Parliament (Lok Sabha). A win here would strengthen Modi’s federal coalition, while a defeat could energize opposition parties.

Political analyst Siddharth Mishra said, “This election is not just about alliances, but decisive for the balance of power. If the NDA under Modi fails, it could raise questions about the stability of his government at the center.”

Last year, after the BJP failed to secure a full majority in the federal elections, it formed a government with the Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). These parties remain Modi’s key partners in Bihar.

The ruling alliance in Bihar is led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United), with the BJP as the main ally. At 74, Kumar has led the state for nearly two decades, credited with infrastructure development and law-and-order improvements.

Once a political rival of Modi, Kumar returned to the NDA in recent years. Analysts warn that a defeat in Bihar could increase internal splits within Kumar’s party and affect the federal stability of Modi’s government.

Political expert Professor Ravi Ranjan noted that the election could influence not only Bihar’s leadership but also the federal power balance.

The opposition, including Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in alliance with Congress, is competing strongly. Modi’s former election manager Prashant Kishor has launched a new political group, Jan Suraj, which is also in the fray.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi recently criticized the Election Commission, alleging that voter list revisions were politically motivated. Around 10 percent of roughly 74 million voters have reportedly been removed from the list since June.

Opposition parties claim this disenfranchises poor and minority communities, while the Election Commission maintains that revisions were necessary due to demographic changes, migration, and deaths.

Bihar is an agriculture-based state and among India’s economically weakest, with a population of about 130 million.
Job creation and economic prosperity are key election issues. Both the BJP-led alliance and opposition parties promised millions of government jobs, but economists question the feasibility given the state’s weak economy.

In September, Prime Minister Modi targeted female voters, giving 7.5 million women Rs 10,000 ($113) each under an employment program. With men often leaving Bihar for work, women are a decisive voter group.

Social economist Pushpendra Kumar, former professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, said, “This election highlights Bihar’s contradictions—while much of the population lives in poverty, the ruling alliance claims to have put the state on a path of development.”

He added that while some welfare programs have been initiated, long-term issues like landlessness, low wages, and limited employment opportunities remain unaddressed by concrete policies.