NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its southwest monsoon forecast downward to 90 percent of the Long Period Average, raising concerns over agriculture, inflation, and rural economic activity.

The updated projection, released today, is lower than the 92 percent estimate issued in April and points to a below-normal monsoon season.

The IMD said weak El Niño conditions are expected to emerge in June and intensify during July to September, likely suppressing rainfall across much of the country.

Below-average rainfall is forecast for northwest, central, and southern peninsular India, while parts of northeast India may receive normal to above-normal rain.

The weather department also warned of above-normal heatwave conditions in several states during June, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh.

The weaker monsoon outlook poses risks to India’s agriculture sector, as over half of the country’s farmland depends on rainfall. Economists warn it could affect crop output, rural demand, and food prices.

India last recorded a below-normal monsoon in 2023 under El Niño conditions, with rainfall at 94 percent of the Long Period Average.