KATHMANDU: The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)’s win in the February 2026 elections, with a two-thirds majority, has marked the beginning of a new chapter in the country’s governance. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is at the helm, having returned from a seventeen-year exile with a mandate that is both a demand for economic stability and a repudiation of the previous regime’s perceived over-dependence.

As Mr. Rahman takes office, his government will have the mammoth task of converting this electoral good fortune into a sustainable “Bangladesh First” foreign and economic policy. This doctrine is not only a populist catchword, but a strategic turning point to a non-aligned interest-based approach in which the influence of regional giants such as India and China is balanced and the Western investment is wooed and internalized into economic reforms.

The main challenge for the Mr. Rahman’s government is the “fragile economy” inherited from the previous era. Economic necessity is inextricably linked up with foreign policy. The approaching expiration of Least Developed Country (LDC) status by late 2026 is the looming obstacle because, at that time, important trade preferences and tariff concessions to which the readymade garment sector has become accustomed will no longer exist.

In addition, the diplomatic scene has a lot of history baggage and regional friction. Relations with India – previously indistinguishable by deep integration – have become acrimonious after the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina. New Delhi’s decision to give her refuge and to suspend visa operations and mutual boycotts have given the situation a backdrop of widespread distrust.

On the other side of the ledger, despite how reliable of a ‘development friend’ China has been in the field of infrastructure, there is a delicate balance to maintain with the United States.

Washington has already made it clear that it intends to articulate the risks of over-involvement with Beijing particularly in the area of military and technology cooperation, and at the same time assess whether the new administration is genuinely business-friendly.

For navigational abilities of these pincers, the policy of “Bangladesh First” adopted by the Prime Minister Tarique Rahman must focus on pragmatic engagement based on issues rather than ideological orientation. The first step in this solution driven approach is a calibrated “thaw” with India. Rather than continue a cycle of hostility, instead of attempting to reduce the possible hostilities, Dhaka should instead leverage its geographic importance to negotiate agreements on equitable water sharing and in reducing non-tariff barriers. By defining the relationship in terms of mutual economic interest and not political patronage, Mr. Rahman can satisfy domestic nationalist concerns and a necessary regional stability at the same time.

Simultaneously, the administration should spread its base of Asian partners by seeking official entry into the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Joining this bloc would give access to more diversified supply chains and a boost of inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Bangladesh, which effectively takes the pressure off of a singular reliance on any one power region.

BNP sees the revival of SAARC as a way to “reduce dependence on any single country”, aiming to balance regional relations. This approach is often at odds with the “bilateral template” used by other administrations, instead advocating regional multilateralism.

Following the formation of the government, I see the BNP concentrating on strengthening regional ties through SAARC and pursuing ASEAN membership under its new foreign policy ideology, “Bangladesh First.” The strategic shift towards Asian Economic Cooperation (ASEAN) is a more viable approach for Bangladesh to integrate into the global manufacturing eco-system, and the BNP government must take it seriously from now on.

As Tarique Rahman has emphasized the importance of reviving SAARC, the BNP-led new political government may immediately contact the SAARC Secretariat to suggest the formation of a special committee comprised of numerous former diplomats and expert academics from SAARC nations.

In order to expand public diplomacy and put pressure on the government to hold the SAARC summit, which has been delayed for more than ten years, this special committee would start urgent talks with a range of stakeholders in the member countries.

Bangladesh can take advantage of this opportunity to host the SAARC summit if all member states agree. I think that by melting the ice, this can assist the eight SAARC nations get closer to one another.

As for the tremendous competition between the great powers of the U.S. and China, the solution lies in sector specific specialization. China continues to be the indispensable partner for massive infrastructure projects. However, in order to meet the needs of Western partners, and to ensure the future of the garment industry, Rahman needs to send “clear signals” of institutional reform, especially around labor standards and the rule of law. By positioning Bangladesh as a transparent and predictable destination for Western “friend-shoring” in high tech sectors such as semiconductors and IT, the government will be able to balance Chinese infrastructure debt with Western equity and market access.

Foreign policy is only as good as the domestic economy to which it belongs. In order to reduce the risks of LDCs graduation and create jobs for the two million new job-seekers in the labour market every year, the government needs to look beyond the “garment trap”. The strategic way forward is through giant leaps into light engineering, footwear, agro-processing and the IT sector. This diversification is not only an economic imperative but a demographic imperative otherwise the demographic dividend on which the nation’s economy depends may turn into a ‘powder keg’ of youth frustration.

A crucial part of this stabilization is the banking and remittance sector reform. Remittances by the 10 million workers abroad are a more important life-line than any IMF programme. The government needs to ensure that these flows are sustained through legal means, preserving the integrity of the banking system and clamping down on “hundi”(a type of informal remittance transfer channel) networks which thrived under the previous setup of cronyism. Strengthening these institutions will not only have the benefit of shoring up these foreign exchange reserves but also build up the “institutional credibility” which sophisticated foreign investors need to be enticed back who have previously been deterred by corruption and non-performing loans.

The most immediate domestic challenge – and a possible “Achilles heel” – is the issue of food price inflation. While high interest rates have been used as a tool, really the solution is to break down the unregulated middlemen that dominate the supply chain of food. By investing in post-harvest logistics and offering “farmer cards” to offer direct support, the current administration can simultaneously reduce the price of food in-desert cities and increase the return for the 50 million workers employed in agriculture. This approach tackles the “cronyism” that used to skew markets in the past and ensured the “Democratic Economy” promised in the BNP manifesto reached the marginalized groups who make up the basis of the party.

Furthermore, the government must take the advice of top economists to look for “bite-sized, high-impact projects” rather than getting stuck with the overly ambitious, unfunded, grand plans.

The renewal of the faith in public institutions – including the civil bureaucracy and the judiciary – is vital. The administration is advised not to go for sweeping, vengeful purges of the state machinery, which may result in institutional paralysis, and focus more on merit-based appointments and judicial independence. A “revenge-free” governance structure will be the best signal to international observers that Bangladesh has indeed embarked upon a new era of stability.

The road ahead for Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is a fine balancing act. He needs to deal with the legacy “Rohingya Crisis” that is still a major humanitarian and security burden. Retaining some of the experienced diplomats and security advisors to put the plight of the refugees in front of the world is a move in the right direction as is to seek the mediation of China for a long-term repatriation solution.

The success of the “Bangladesh First” doctrine will be judged, after all, by whether or not it will be able to bring about tangible results: reduced prices, improved jobs and restoration of the national sense of dignity. If Mr. Rahman’s administration is able to effectively use its massive mandate to pursue structural reform without taking a hardline, hamstrung and irrelevant diplomatic position, Bangladesh may have a chance to come out of the shadow of the conflict to become a stable, middle-income power in the South Asian region.

The mandate is wide-ranging, but the path is complicated. By focusing on national interest over local alignment, sectoral diversification and a commitment to institutional integrity, Tarique Rahman can convert a moment of electoral victory into a lasting legacy of economic and political renewal. The international community, from Washington to Beijing, is watching for the “clear signals” which will mark the next decade of the nation’s trajectory.

(Dr Mohammad Tarikul Islam is a Professor in the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University in Bangladesh, as well as a Postdoctoral Fellow and Visiting Professor at Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, and Harvard. Professor Islam is the Resource Person (training and research) at BPATC, NDC, NILG, and Police Staff College, and a former member of the Local Government Reform Commission 2024.)