BENGALURU: A new report by the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University has warned that India’s 11,000-kilometre coastline faces rapidly escalating climate risks by 2040, including rising temperatures, erratic monsoon patterns, coastal erosion, and growing threats to public health and livelihoods.

The study, Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021–2040, uses high-resolution climate modeling to assess near-term climate impacts under a moderate emissions scenario.

Unlike conventional forecasts that focus on the latter half of the century, the report highlights significant changes expected within the next 14 to 16 years.

According to the report, average temperatures across India’s coastal regions could rise by around 1.5°C, increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves.

Wet-bulb temperatures—a key indicator of heat stress—are also projected to increase, particularly in coastal districts of West Bengal, raising concerns about public health and labor productivity.

The report further projects major shifts in rainfall patterns, with several coastal regions expected to experience heavier monsoon rainfall and more frequent extreme precipitation events.

Suburban Mumbai could see an 18 percent increase in southwest monsoon rainfall, while industrial hubs such as Surat and Bhavnagar may face increases exceeding 20 percent, posing challenges for infrastructure and urban management.

Rising sea levels and stronger coastal erosion are identified as major threats. The report notes that sea levels could rise by about 15 centimeters between 2020 and 2050, increasing the vulnerability of coastal communities.

Areas in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Karnataka are already witnessing shoreline retreat, loss of protective vegetation, and damage to homes and public infrastructure.

The study also highlights severe socio-economic consequences, particularly for fishing and farming communities. Warmer oceans are expected to affect fish stocks, while repeated saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources threatens agriculture and public health in vulnerable ecosystems such as the Sundarbans.

In the report’s foreword, Azim Premji Foundation CEO Anurag Behar stressed that climate change is already affecting communities and cannot be treated as a distant challenge.

The report calls for urgent action from policymakers, local governments, and businesses to strengthen climate-resilient infrastructure, restore coastal ecosystems, and implement localized adaptation measures to protect millions of people living along India’s coastline.