KATHMANDU: The southwest monsoon, considered crucial for South Asia’s weather patterns and agricultural systems, has arrived in mainland Kerala, India.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon entered Kerala on June 4, a few days later than its usual schedule.

The onset of the monsoon was declared following favorable atmospheric conditions and an increase in rainfall activity over Kerala and its neighboring areas.

With its arrival, heavy rains have begun in Kerala and coastal regions, and the system is expected to expand toward the north and east in the coming days.

According to meteorologists, the monsoon that has reached Kerala, India, could arrive in Nepal within about 9 to 12 days.

Although the average onset date for the monsoon in Nepal is June 13, the slight delay in its arrival in Kerala suggests that it may enter Nepal a bit late this year as well.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology stated that, based on preliminary estimates, the monsoon is expected to enter the eastern border region of Nepal between June 15 and June 17.

Meteorologists note that the speed of the monsoon will be determined by the moisture-laden winds coming from the Bay of Bengal and atmospheric pressure conditions.

After entering Nepal, the monsoon typically spreads across the country starting from Koshi Province and moves westward.

According to the Meteorological Forecasting Division, it will take an additional 5 to 7 days for the monsoon system, which begins in the eastern region, to expand all the way to Sudurpashchim Province.

Due to the potential influence of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean this year, overall monsoon rainfall is estimated to be slightly below average.

However, since there is a high probability of adequate rainfall in eastern and central Nepal during the initial phase of the monsoon, authorities related to agriculture and disaster management have been advised to make necessary preparations.