KATHMANDU: Nepal is likely to receive below-average rainfall during this year’s monsoon season, but the risk of monsoon-related disasters remains high due to rising temperatures and extreme weather events, according to authorities.

The draft Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan 2026 released by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority estimates that more than 1.9 million people could be affected this monsoon.

The report projects that around 457,145 households and 1,997,731 people may be impacted. Among them, 52 percent are expected to be women and 48 percent men.

It also highlights that around 164,000 children under five, more than 415,000 elderly people above 60, and around 48,000 persons with disabilities are at higher risk.

A significant number of women of reproductive age are also included in the vulnerable group.

Regionally, Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini, and Sudurpaschim provinces are expected to face relatively higher monsoon disaster risks. Authorities have urged provincial and local governments to strengthen preparedness based on risk assessments.

The Authority’s Under Secretary Ram Bahadur K.C. said concerned agencies have been instructed to improve early warning systems, identify safe shelters, prepare relief materials, and strengthen rescue mechanisms.

Meanwhile, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast below-average rainfall this monsoon, with rising temperatures across the country.

According to the department, there is a 55–65 percent probability of below-average rainfall in southern Karnali, most areas of Lumbini, eastern Madhesh, and southern Koshi.

In contrast, some parts of Sudurpaschim, western Madhesh, and central Koshi have a 45–55 percent chance of above-average rainfall, while northern parts of Karnali and Koshi have a 35–45 percent chance of normal rainfall.

For temperature, maximum temperatures are expected to remain above average across all provinces with a 55–65 percent probability. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above average nationwide, with similar high probabilities in Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Bagmati, Madhesh, and Koshi provinces.