KATHMANDU: Six weeks have shot by since Israel and America launched a joint attack on Iran. US President Donald Trump’s optimistic expectations which perhaps were “I’ll finish this war in a couple of weeks ” have completely flopped. Now the world is asking whether the situation was better before the war, or has it only worsened after it.

There are several reasons people are thinking this. First, the Hormuz region was completely open to free traffic. Then, after the start of the war, Iran imposed a blockade on it. And now Trump has imposed a double blockade. Media have reported the US Central Command as saying that “more than 10,000 Sailors, Marines, and Airmen, supported by over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft, are carrying out a mission to blockade ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.” So, six weeks on, we have gone from zero blockade to a double blockade.

Before, negotiations over nuclear weapons were possible. A nuclear deal could have been reached; President Barack Obama even made one with Iran. But now Iran is even more intransigent, because it knows that if it surrenders its nuclear program, the US will not leave it in peace. So it is even more determined.

Iran was previously divided. There was talk of revolution, of overthrowing the regime. Now Iran has united; it has turned against America. The hardline regime and the IRGC have become even more entrenched. We can now say goodbye to any prospect of democracy there.

Trump is berating and threatening his allies, and as a result, the entire structure – NATO, Western alliances, democratic alliances – has appeared dysfunctional. With it, the international order and the rule of law have also disintegrated.

Iran is devastated but the US too has suffered substantial damage. America used to be an asset to its allies in the region; today, those same allies are being severely struck by missiles because of America. Countries that depended on America for protection are now being attacked because of it. America perhaps has become a liability in the Gulf, and the US has never faced a situation like this since World War II, where its allies have been so badly hurt that they are gradually distancing themselves from it.

Trump is berating and threatening his allies, and as a result, the entire structure – NATO, Western alliances, democratic alliances – has appeared dysfunctional. With it, the international order and the rule of law have also disintegrated.

The war is bad for the entire world, but it is especially worrying for countries like Nepal. However, the main point for now is that Trump has played his latest trump card: a double blockade of Hormuz, betting that Iran will be forced to surrender.

So, let us understand today whether this logic is sound; which calculation has Trump used to justify announcing this blockade? Will it bring Iran closer to the negotiating table? Or will it also turn out to be a disadvantage for the United States and its Western allies? There is considerable evidence from the last 24 hours that this blockade move is headed in the same direction as the “boots on the ground” strategy – toward failure.

Despite all the bombing that has taken place on Iran, despite all the casualties, Iran has kept global shipping in limbo. Twenty per cent of the world’s fuel, oil, and gas supplies pass through Hormuz. Hundreds of ships are simply waiting, uncertain of when or whether they will be able to move.

First, let us try to understand why Hormuz is so important, and why it has remained the focal point of this entire war. At its narrowest, the strait is only 50 kilometers wide, running right alongside Iran’s coast. Iran, naturally, has threatened to block international traffic through it, and has used that threat as leverage, quite successfully.

Despite all the bombing that has taken place on Iran, despite all the casualties, Iran has kept global shipping in limbo. Twenty per cent of the world’s fuel, oil, and gas supplies pass through Hormuz. Hundreds of ships are simply waiting, uncertain of when or whether they will be able to move.

Now, after the recent fragile ceasefire attempt, Iran made clear that if there is no ceasefire, it will begin charging tolls – two million dollars for large tankers. In effect, a toll gate has been established, with Iran relaying the following message: “We haven’t closed Hormuz. Our friends like China can pass through for free, and neutral European countries – those not aligned with America or Israel – can pay the toll and pass through.”

Trump seized on this and declared: “This is extortion. This is financial terrorism. We will not accept it. We must break it.” A moralistic position – interesting that morality has only just come to mind, after the killing of thousands of civilians including little girls, the destruction of Iran’s entire administrative infrastructure with bombs and missiles. Now suddenly Trump is invoking international rules, regulations, and laws. He is saying he will not allow this extortion. And to stop it, he has imposed a double blockade. No one will be able to pass. Essentially: if we can’t have it, nobody can.

Now, will this double blockade logic work?

Let us be clear about one thing first. This does not appear to be the product of careful planning. It seems Donald Trump is scraping the bottom of the barrel, picking up whatever idea comes his way and running with it. He got the idea of a double blockade somewhere, and when negotiations failed, immediately announced: “From tomorrow, everything is blocked, nobody passes.” The American Navy and Central Command then stepped in to clarify: “No, that is not quite right; we will only stop ships coming from Iranian ports, or ships that have already paid the toll. Other traffic will be allowed through.”

So, there was no planning behind this. It was announced through a Trump tweet, after which the rest of the US administration scrambled to figure out how to make use of it. But the logic behind this blockade needs to be examined carefully. It sounds compelling on paper. But will it actually bring Iran to the negotiating table?

The idea is this: by blocking Iran’s economic lifeline (oil exports are indeed Iran’s lifeline) you can pressure Iran into negotiating. If Iran cannot export oil, it will struggle just like anyone else. The US estimates Iran has approximately two weeks of storage capacity. If it cannot export after that, it will have to shut down its wells. So, at the very minimum, this blockade needs at least two weeks to have any effect. This war is not ending soon.

Meanwhile, the effort to avoid “boots on the ground” continues. After the crash of a US fighter jet and the rescue operation that required hundreds of personnel, nobody is talking about a ground operation with any enthusiasm, because the rescue operation was essentially a failure.

Will Tehran come to the negotiating table? Even if two weeks from now, will Tehran come? Or is this strategy fundamentally flawed? Common sense suggests this is a bad idea.

The global shock that will follow from cutting off all oil supplies will certainly hurt Iran. But let’s do the math: will the whole world be hit harder, or will Iran?

It would be a mistake for the US to assume Iran cannot respond asymmetrically. Remember, this is the same Donald Trump who was shocked by how Iran struck Gulf nations: “We had no hope of this.” Iran still has cards to play. It can use asymmetric warfare to defeat this strategy too.

The global shock that will follow from cutting off all oil supplies will certainly hurt Iran. But let’s do the math: will the whole world be hit harder, or will Iran? For example, India was previously allowed to buy oil from Iran, which helped stabilize international prices. The US also allowed India to buy Russian oil. Now Trump is saying he will squeeze global supply even further.

International shipping is already in distress; ships are trying to avoid the strait. Now they will have to navigate both an Iranian blockade and a US blockade. The result: a serious threat of recession, further fuel price increases, and more economic pain in the old and also in America. Fuel prices have already risen 30% in the US in a single month. They will only go higher. America claims it doesn’t need oil, but it is still a net importer of petroleum products.

Trump appears to have forgotten that he is, in effect, taking on China, a country he has explicitly avoided confronting directly, as we saw during the tariff war. If 80 to 90% of Iran’s oil exports – through ghost ships, anonymous vessels, or sanctioned carriers – are going to China, does anyone believe China will quietly accept this blockade? Or will China challenge it? And if China does challenge it and Trump fails to respond, the humiliation will be even greater.

This is also a test of resilience. Iran, after decades of sanctions, has demonstrated a capacity to withstand further economic pressure. In fact, the latest reports indicate that a Chinese tanker has already passed through this blockade. Does the US have the will and the capability to confront China directly over this?

The practical geography makes a full blockade extremely difficult. Some of Iran’s mines may have been cleared but extending a blockade across 300 kilometers – to keep US ships out of range of Iranian fire – raises serious questions about its feasibility.

Why is this bad news for Nepal?

This is bad news for Nepal because this is bad news for India. Look at the US stock market; look at India’s stock market. Look at China’s situation; and look at India’s. People in India are already struggling with LPG cylinder prices. Recent TV reports show how people in various parts of India were asking how they could afford a cylinder on their salaries.

The Indian government may not wish to say it or show it, but a crisis is already developing. If this double blockade takes hold, no government will be able to stop it, suppress it, or find alternative routes quickly enough. Nepal will be directly affected if India, our sole supplier of petroleum products, is affected. Fuel prices in Nepal have already seen a hefty rise. They are likely to shoot up even higher. So, it appears that the days ahead will be worse. If this war is not resolved quickly, everyone is going to suffer.

After seven years, India had only just resumed buying oil from Iran, having stopped under US sanctions. It started again at America’s behest. Now, because of America’s double blockade, that cheap Iranian oil may once again be off the table for India.

India’s second problem is its limited room for maneuver. China can openly criticize America; China can use this as a talking point in its favor. But India has become so dependent on America – as a Quad partner, and in its desire to secure favorable trade terms – that it cannot say anything. If America imposes a blockade, India must accept it. If America lifts it, India will benefit. This is India’s position.

China has diversified its energy supply chains. India still sources more than 50% of its fuel and LPG through the Strait of Hormuz and has not made sufficient efforts to develop its own resources or diversify its supply lines. India remains energy-poor and heavily dependent on Hormuz.

Six weeks ago, there was talk of regime change. Six weeks later, there is still talk of regime change; but the regime that appears most under pressure is not in Tehran. It is in Washington and Tel Aviv.

Whatever oil becomes available, including Russian oil, will trigger a scramble among global consumers. International prices will rise further. And once elections in India are over, prices will rise rapidly if this blockade is not lifted and this war is not resolved.

Six weeks ago, there was talk of regime change. Six weeks later, there is still talk of regime change; but the regime that appears most under pressure is not in Tehran. It is in Washington and Tel Aviv.

According to media reports, Trump’s approval rating has now reached -43. This is reportedly the lowest for any US president in modern history. Richard Nixon, who was facing impeachment, had a -42% rating in his final week before he was forced to resign. Trump has apparently surpassed that.

Trump was elected because people believed he was different – an “outsider” who would not start wars and would focus on economic prosperity. Today, cartoons in America depict Trump as Netanyahu’s servant or pet. People are deeply disturbed by this portrayal because Trump promised no wars, yet here is a war widely seen as being waged at Israel’s behest.

Netanyahu, for his part, is finding that support in Europe and increasingly in America is slipping. European leaders are making open statements against Israel and its actions in Gaza. Netanyahu’s response has been to say: “Aren’t you ashamed? You should have protected us against barbarism.” The irony of who is committing the barbarism has not been lost on the world, a world that was silent during the Gaza bombings is now watching closely.

Sixty-one percent of Americans, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, now believe Trump has become erratic. A former CIA director stated that the 25th Amendment, which allows for the removal of a president deemed unfit, was designed with people like Trump in mind.

A significant section of American media is also speaking out in similar terms: “The whole world has to isolate this rogue, genocidal, mass serial-killing, pathologically lying state. You cannot expect change in that society from within.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to seek postponement of his corruption trial, citing the ongoing war as justification.

Sixty-one percent of Americans, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, now believe Trump has become erratic. A former CIA director stated that the 25th Amendment, which allows for the removal of a president deemed unfit, was designed with people like Trump in mind. Even some of his longtime supporters are asking questions.

Trump’s rhetoric and behavior suggest that he badly miscalculated; he appears to have thought Iran would be like Venezuela: a quick resolution, easy money, and enhanced prestige. Instead, there has been embarrassment, escalation, and retreat.

He threatened to “wipe out an entire civilization.” This has naturally raised questions regarding Trump’s mental state which has itself become a subject of public debate.  What kind of person can even think of wiping out an entire civilization?

He has used abusive language directed at Iran. He threatened to “wipe out an entire civilization.” This has naturally raised questions regarding Trump’s mental state which has itself become a subject of public debate.  That he can think of “wiping out an entire civilization” tells a lot about the kind of person he is. Moreover, trump attacked the Pope as well, calling him “weak on crime, terrible on foreign policy.” He even posted a tweet appearing to impersonate Jesus Christ, which he subsequently deleted.

In the end, we can only hope for a resolution. In a recent interview to New York Post, Trump has indicated that dialogue with Iran could resume within the next couple of days. Reports are still emerging – unverified – that Iran has agreed to halt nuclear enrichment for five years, while the US is demanding a twenty-year freeze. How much truth there is in this will become clear in the coming hours.

What no longer needs confirmation, however, is that the true character of both Trump and Netanyahu has been laid bare. And this attempt to blockade Hormuz will likely go the same way as everything else in this war – reduced to a cartoon, much like the cartoons that are growing increasingly popular these days.